H1B Cap And Lottery Chances – Via ILW.com


For the FY 2008 H-1B cap (beginning October 1, 2007), H-1B
petitions can be filed six months in advance, i.e. on April 1,
2007. Since April 1, 2007 falls on a Sunday, petitions received
on April 2, 2007 will be considered filed on the first date that
the filing for the FY 2008 H-1B cap is open. When will the FY
2008 H-1B cap be reached? What’s the chance of winning the
lottery for the H-1B cap? Here’s our best educated guesses on
these two questions.

We guess that 80,000 H-1B petitions will be filed based on the
following estimates: large law firms = 30,000 petitions, small
law firms = 15,000 petitions, large H-1B dependents = 25,000
petitions, small H-1B dependents = 10,000 petitions (there have
been reports that 10,000 petitions will be filed by two large
H-1B dependent corporations, we have found no basis to these
rumors). If the H-1B cap is reached on April 2, 2007, the first
date on which petitions subject to the applicable cap may be
filed, the lottery will randomize petitions received on BOTH
4/2/07 and 4/3/07, per 8 CFR 214.2(h)(8)(ii)( B )   “… If the
final receipt date is the same as the first date on which
petitions subject to the applicable cap may be filed (i.e., if
the cap is reached on the first day filings can be made), USCIS
will randomly apply all of the numbers among the petitions filed
on the final receipt date and the following day.” Based on our
guesstimate of 80,000 petitions filed, there is an excellent
chance of winning the H-1B lottery.

Here are some related observations:

++No one can count such a large volume of filings in a day. The
final cap announcement will likely be retroactive.
++Once petitions have been completed, they must be filed
properly. There is confusion amongst the attorneys and
corporations about the USCIS’s policies for acceptance of mail,
courier, etc. We urge USCIS to be transparent about filing
policies by issuing press releases and/or Federal Register
announcements about the methods it will accept for H-1B filings
++To file a large volume of H-1B petitions, immigration law firm
staff will have to work long hours and on weekends from now on
until the cap is reached
++The artificiality of the deadline weighs in favor of well-
prepared mass filers, that’s why we expect the majority of the
visas will be for tech positions
++Instead of 65,000 individuals arriving on H-1B visas, we
believe that less 50,000 individuals will arrive. This is because
some individuals will have multiple H-1B petitions approved as
several companies vie for the best job candidates

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